[
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-industrial-production",
    "slug": "industrial-production",
    "title": "How to read China’s industrial production data",
    "short_title": "Industrial production",
    "profiles": [
      "industrial_output",
      "energy_production"
    ],
    "summary": "Production data shows what China is making and how output is changing. It can shape Canadian demand, competition and supply conditions, but it does not directly measure Chinese demand for Canadian goods.",
    "what_it_measures": "Industrial production releases describe changes in output across manufacturing, mining, utilities or specific energy products. OBOR treats them as evidence about production conditions inside China, not as a substitute for trade, orders or final demand.",
    "why_it_matters": "For Canadian businesses, the mechanism runs through China’s scale as a producer, buyer of inputs and competitor in global markets. Changes in output can alter demand for commodities and industrial inputs, the availability of manufactured supply, export competition and pressure on global prices.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Input demand: stronger or weaker production can change China’s need for energy, minerals, intermediate goods and industrial materials.",
      "Competitive supply: higher Chinese output can increase the quantity of goods competing in third markets, including Canada.",
      "Supply-chain availability: production changes can affect the availability and timing of components, equipment and manufactured inputs sourced from China.",
      "Sector divergence: the composition of growth often matters more than the aggregate rate; manufacturing, mining, utilities and high-technology production can move differently."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Separate output from demand. A rise in production does not by itself show stronger end-market consumption.",
      "Read the sector mix. Broad growth can coexist with contraction in industries relevant to a specific Canadian business.",
      "Distinguish year-over-year and month-over-month rates, and note whether the source reports real or nominal change."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "Orders for Canadian products or services.",
      "A direct change in Canadian commodity prices.",
      "That higher Chinese output is positive or negative for every Canadian firm."
    ],
    "references": [
      {
        "label": "National Bureau of Statistics of China — Industrial Production Operation in August 2026",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202609/t20260917_1965348.html"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-consumer-demand",
    "slug": "consumer-demand",
    "title": "How to read China’s retail-sales data",
    "short_title": "Consumer demand",
    "profiles": [
      "retail_sales"
    ],
    "summary": "Retail sales provides a broad read on consumption activity inside China. It is useful demand context for Canadian businesses, but it is not a direct measure of demand for Canadian exports.",
    "what_it_measures": "China’s total retail sales of consumer goods measures revenue from sales of non-production physical goods to individuals and social groups, together with catering revenue. Category-level results can reveal uneven consumer conditions that disappear inside the headline number.",
    "why_it_matters": "Canadian exposure can appear through direct consumer exports, tourism- and service-adjacent demand, branded goods, food products, luxury categories, automotive supply chains and competition from Chinese producers responding to domestic conditions.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Export demand: consumer categories with strong Chinese exposure may benefit or weaken before aggregate trade data makes the pattern obvious.",
      "Category substitution: weakness in one category can coexist with strength in another, changing which Canadian suppliers face opportunity or pressure.",
      "Competitive response: softer domestic demand can encourage Chinese producers to seek more growth in export markets.",
      "Business planning: retail direction can add context to inventory, channel and market-entry decisions when combined with company-specific evidence."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Use category detail where available; the headline total can hide large differences.",
      "Treat nominal sales carefully when prices are changing.",
      "Compare retail data with prices, production and trade before inferring the cause of a movement."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "Demand for a specific Canadian company or product.",
      "Household financial health on its own.",
      "That weak domestic sales automatically produce higher Chinese exports."
    ],
    "references": [
      {
        "label": "National Bureau of Statistics of China — Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in December 2025",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202601/t20260120_1962354.html"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-price-transmission",
    "slug": "price-transmission",
    "title": "How to read China’s price signals",
    "short_title": "Price transmission",
    "profiles": [
      "market_prices",
      "producer_prices",
      "consumer_prices"
    ],
    "summary": "China’s price indicators describe different stages of the economy. They can reveal cost pressure, weak demand or changing market conditions, but none maps mechanically into Canadian prices.",
    "what_it_measures": "OBOR distinguishes consumer prices, producer prices and circulation-market prices. Consumer prices track prices paid by households; producer-price measures describe prices around industrial production; circulation-market prices include wholesale or trading-market conditions for selected production inputs.",
    "why_it_matters": "Price changes in China can travel through global commodity markets, manufactured input costs, supplier negotiations, competitive pricing and margins. The transmission depends on the product, contract structure, exchange rate, freight, tariffs, inventories and market power.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Input costs: changes in Chinese industrial or circulation prices can affect quoted costs for machinery, components and materials.",
      "Commodity markets: some Chinese price movements reflect conditions in globally traded inputs relevant to Canadian producers.",
      "Competitive pricing: falling producer or market prices can increase price pressure in export markets.",
      "Margin signals: divergence between input and output prices can reveal pressure inside Chinese supply chains."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Identify which price measure is being reported before interpreting direction.",
      "Do not treat a Chinese domestic price as a Canadian landed cost.",
      "Look for persistence across periods and confirmation from production, trade or company-level evidence."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "The price a Canadian buyer will pay.",
      "A direct causal link from Chinese prices to Canadian inflation.",
      "That all products within a category are moving in the same direction."
    ],
    "references": [
      {
        "label": "National Bureau of Statistics of China — Producer Price Index",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/understanding/201311/t20131118_463793.html"
      },
      {
        "label": "National Bureau of Statistics of China — Market Prices of Important Means of Production",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202604/t20260413_1963296.html"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-investment-demand",
    "slug": "investment-demand",
    "title": "How to read China’s investment data",
    "short_title": "Investment demand",
    "profiles": [
      "fixed_asset_investment",
      "real_estate_investment"
    ],
    "summary": "Investment data shows where capital is being committed to construction, equipment and fixed assets. For Canadian business, the sector composition matters more than treating one aggregate number as a demand forecast.",
    "what_it_measures": "Fixed-asset investment records construction, purchases of fixed assets and related expenditure. Real-estate investment is a more specific component with its own demand implications. OBOR uses these releases as capital-spending context rather than evidence of specific procurement.",
    "why_it_matters": "Capital formation can influence Chinese demand for industrial materials, energy, machinery, technology and services. It can also shape future production capacity and therefore future competition faced by Canadian businesses.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Materials demand: infrastructure, manufacturing and property investment can affect consumption of metals, minerals, energy and construction inputs.",
      "Equipment demand: stronger investment in selected industries can expand the addressable market for machinery and industrial technology.",
      "Future capacity: investment today can become additional Chinese productive capacity later, changing competitive conditions.",
      "Sector rotation: investment can fall in aggregate while rising sharply in strategically important industries."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Separate total investment from industry-specific investment.",
      "Distinguish fixed-asset investment from real-estate investment; they can move in different directions.",
      "Treat investment as a capacity and demand indicator, not as a purchase order."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "Procurement of Canadian equipment or materials.",
      "The profitability or completion of the underlying projects.",
      "That higher investment immediately produces higher output."
    ],
    "references": [
      {
        "label": "National Bureau of Statistics of China — Investment in Fixed Assets in 2023, explanatory notes",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202402/t20240201_1947074.html"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-business-momentum",
    "slug": "business-momentum",
    "title": "How to read China’s PMI",
    "short_title": "Business momentum",
    "profiles": [
      "purchasing_managers"
    ],
    "summary": "PMI is a directional survey of business conditions. The 50 line separates expansion from contraction relative to the previous month; it is not a growth rate and does not measure the size of the economy.",
    "what_it_measures": "China’s purchasing managers’ indexes summarize monthly surveys covering purchasing, production, logistics and related business conditions across manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity. Sub-indexes such as new orders, export orders, inventories and supplier delivery times can carry more specific information than the headline.",
    "why_it_matters": "PMI can provide an earlier read on changes in activity than slower official datasets. Canadian firms can use it as context for industrial demand, export conditions, sourcing pressure and business-cycle direction, while avoiding claims that the survey directly measures Canadian exposure.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Demand direction: new-order and production components can indicate improving or weakening business activity.",
      "Export conditions: export-order measures can add context to external demand facing Chinese producers.",
      "Supply chains: inventory and delivery-time components can reveal changes in operating pressure.",
      "Timing: survey data can move before hard production or trade statistics."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "A reading above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month; below 50 indicates contraction.",
      "A lower reading above 50 can mean expansion is continuing at a slower pace.",
      "Use sub-indexes and subsequent hard data to test the story suggested by the headline."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "A percentage growth rate in output or GDP.",
      "Demand for Canadian exports.",
      "The magnitude of expansion or contraction in dollar terms."
    ],
    "references": [
      {
        "label": "National Bureau of Statistics of China — Purchasing Managers Index",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/understanding/cs/201311/t20131118_463794.html"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-trade-flows",
    "slug": "trade-flows",
    "title": "How to read China’s trade signals",
    "short_title": "Trade flows",
    "profiles": [
      "trade"
    ],
    "summary": "Trade data shows cross-border flows, not the reason behind them. Canadian relevance depends on the product, geography, direction of trade and the pathway connecting China’s movement to a Canadian business.",
    "what_it_measures": "Trade releases can describe exports, imports, balances, product categories or partner-country flows. OBOR separates the observed flow from the explanation for it; a change in trade can reflect demand, prices, exchange rates, policy, inventories, rerouting or several factors at once.",
    "why_it_matters": "China’s trade patterns can change demand for Canadian commodities and intermediate goods, the supply available to Canadian buyers, and the competitive intensity faced by Canadian producers in domestic and third-country markets.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Chinese import demand: changes in China’s purchases can affect exporters of commodities, food, materials and industrial inputs.",
      "Canadian import supply: changes in Chinese exports can affect availability, lead times and landed-cost pressure.",
      "Third-market competition: Chinese export growth can alter competition for Canadian firms outside Canada.",
      "Trade diversion: policy changes can redirect flows between markets without changing underlying production."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Check whether the reported movement is value, volume or both.",
      "Separate total Chinese trade from Canada-specific trade.",
      "Avoid assigning a cause unless the source or corroborating evidence supports it."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "Why the trade movement occurred.",
      "That a China-wide trade trend applies to Canada.",
      "The commercial effect on a specific Canadian firm."
    ],
    "references": []
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-policy-market-access",
    "slug": "policy-market-access",
    "title": "How policy actions can reach Canadian business",
    "short_title": "Policy and market access",
    "profiles": [
      "trade_action",
      "regulatory_action",
      "policy_action"
    ],
    "summary": "Official actions can change market access, compliance costs, incentives and competitive conditions before economic data shows the effect. The action itself is evidence; its eventual impact is a separate question.",
    "what_it_measures": "For policy, regulatory and trade-action signals, OBOR records the explicit institutional action stated by an official source. It does not manufacture quantitative evidence where the source does not provide it.",
    "why_it_matters": "A rule, tariff, restriction, subsidy, standard or administrative change can alter who may sell, what it costs to comply, where supply is sourced and how firms compete. The Canadian pathway can be direct or indirect through global markets and supply chains.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Market access: tariffs, controls, standards or licensing rules can change the conditions for selling into or buying from China.",
      "Compliance: new requirements can increase documentation, testing, certification or operating costs.",
      "Competitive position: incentives or restrictions can advantage or constrain Chinese producers relative to Canadian firms.",
      "Supply-chain rerouting: policy can redirect goods, sourcing and investment through third markets."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Separate announcement from implementation; scope, timing and enforcement can change.",
      "Identify which products, entities and jurisdictions are actually covered.",
      "Treat estimated commercial effects as analysis unless the source measures them directly."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "The final economic effect of a newly announced policy.",
      "How consistently a rule will be enforced.",
      "That every Canadian business in an affected industry has the same exposure."
    ],
    "references": []
  },
  {
    "id": "obor-knowledge-evidence-relevance",
    "slug": "evidence-relevance-confidence",
    "title": "Evidence, Canadian relevance and confidence in OBOR",
    "short_title": "Evidence and relevance",
    "profiles": [],
    "summary": "OBOR separates what an official source establishes from why it may matter in Canada. Relevance and confidence are analytical controls, not predictions, recommendations or objective measurements.",
    "what_it_measures": "Every OBOR signal begins with source-grounded evidence. The system then asks whether the development is economically significant and whether a bounded pathway to Canadian business can be stated. These are separate layers so that interpretation cannot silently replace the measured variable.",
    "why_it_matters": "The separation is designed to make a signal usable without overstating what the source proves. A reader should be able to distinguish the observed fact, OBOR’s interpretation, the Canadian transmission pathway and the remaining uncertainty.",
    "canadian_channels": [
      "Evidence: what the cited source directly reports.",
      "Mechanism: the economic process through which the observation could propagate.",
      "Canadian relevance: the bounded pathway connecting that mechanism to Canadian buyers, sellers, operators or competitors.",
      "Confidence: how strongly the evidence supports the published interpretation under OBOR’s current protocol."
    ],
    "read_with": [
      "Treat the source-linked facts as distinct from OBOR’s analytical explanation.",
      "Use relevance as a triage aid, not as a probability or expected financial return.",
      "Use confidence as a statement about evidentiary support, not certainty about future outcomes."
    ],
    "does_not_establish": [
      "A forecast of what will happen next.",
      "Investment, legal, regulatory or trade advice.",
      "That a high relevance score means a development will have a large effect on a particular company."
    ],
    "references": []
  }
]