OBOR KNOWLEDGE / HOW TO READ THE SIGNAL

Evidence, Canadian relevance and confidence in OBOR

OBOR separates what an official source establishes from why it may matter in Canada. Relevance and confidence are analytical controls, not predictions, recommendations or objective measurements.

WHAT IT MEASURES

Every OBOR signal begins with source-grounded evidence. The system then asks whether the development is economically significant and whether a bounded pathway to Canadian business can be stated. These are separate layers so that interpretation cannot silently replace the measured variable.

WHY IT CAN MATTER IN CANADA

The separation is designed to make a signal usable without overstating what the source proves. A reader should be able to distinguish the observed fact, OBOR’s interpretation, the Canadian transmission pathway and the remaining uncertainty.

TRANSMISSION CHANNELS

Evidence: what the cited source directly reports.
Mechanism: the economic process through which the observation could propagate.
Canadian relevance: the bounded pathway connecting that mechanism to Canadian buyers, sellers, operators or competitors.
Confidence: how strongly the evidence supports the published interpretation under OBOR’s current protocol.

HOW TO READ IT

Treat the source-linked facts as distinct from OBOR’s analytical explanation.
Use relevance as a triage aid, not as a probability or expected financial return.
Use confidence as a statement about evidentiary support, not certainty about future outcomes.

WHAT IT DOES NOT ESTABLISH

A forecast of what will happen next.
Investment, legal, regulatory or trade advice.
That a high relevance score means a development will have a large effect on a particular company.

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